Nick Davidov @Nick_Davidov 2022-12-24
GPT4 will be out soon and will probably cause a similar economic shock to one from Covid. Instant distribution with nearly instant adoption and nearly instant productivity increase for hundreds of millions of knowledge workers. Brace yourselves, 2023 is coming
Eliezer Yudkowsky @ESYudkowsky 2022-12-25
Want to bet on this? $100,000, even odds, mutually agreeable judge.
Nick Davidov @Nick_Davidov 2022-12-26
What do you mean by even odds? :) I’m already betting on it with my VC investments in this field. Not interested in 2x
Nick Davidov @Nick_Davidov 2022-12-26
I mean that what @ESYudkowsky uses here is a manipulation. Obviously any forecasted black swan event has orders of magnitude lower probability of happening than “not happening”. Then there’s leeway for an argument on a magnitude of such event.
Nick Davidov @Nick_Davidov 2022-12-26
This is why he feels it’s a safe bet to put 100k bets on variations of this happening with possible 100x outcomes within a diversified portfolio of VC bets.
皆の前で漏らしました @icepick1001 2022-12-26
That's a long way to say you don't really trust that prediction.
Nick Davidov @Nick_Davidov 2022-12-26
Unlike twitter bets, my bets are real and we’ve made 36 of them just this year.